$ predictions and investment opinions

[Chiefster23]

We are an older bunch here and some of us have good instincts concerning $ and investments. I’m considering making some big changes to my IRA allocations. That said, two questions I would like folks to chime in upon. Considering the shit storm the world is in right now;
1. Where do you think the stock market is going? Up, down, or staying flat?
2. Where do you think interest rates are going? Up, down, or pretty much stagnant?

I have some ideas of my own and looking at possibly making some big changes. But I don’t want to post my thoughts just yet as I want unbiased input from all you grumpy old bastards.

[Slippy]

We are an older bunch here and some of us have good instincts concerning $ and investments. I’m considering making some big changes to my IRA allocations. That said, two questions I would like folks to chime in upon. Considering the shit storm the world is in right now;
1. Where do you think the stock market is going? Up, down, or staying flat?
2. Where do you think interest rates are going? Up, down, or pretty much stagnant?

I have some ideas of my own and looking at possibly making some big changes. But I don’t want to post my thoughts just yet as I want unbiased input from all you grumpy old bastards.

Market goes up, Market goes down...

But seriously, I see the stock market in general, inching up steadily over the next 2 years or so. Catastrophic events will occur as they always do and corrections happen.

Mortgage Interest rates will move downward slightly but the days of a 2.5% 30 year mortgage are probably not coming back. New Homeownership is pretty strange now, I'd hate to be a young man with a wife and/or a kid on the way and looking for a 1st home to buy.

Automobile might see some 0% financing on new vehicles but that comes and goes.

I'm mostly in Mutual Funds with long term track records with a few stocks. I just depleted some of my cash reserves on a land purchase and slowly building cash back up. Luckily (or not) I'm still gainfully employed. The health insurance is very good, the pay is solid but the bullshit is deep and FUBAR...

That's my story and I'm sticking to it

[Texas PO]

I am not Warren Buffet so I would never offer any advice suggesting I had the slightest clue on how to invest money and grow wealth. What I see from the very cheap seats is an economy that is unsustainable. Do with that what you will.

[T-Man 1066]

I figure anybody can invest money and either win or lose. I lean toward being able to generate money. I could go broke tonight, be cashin checks tomorrow. Sustainable until my body falls apart. The work-aholic mantra!

[SparkyPrep]

My 401k is doing better than ever right now. Just sayin.

[SparkyPrep]

The Dow has consistently averaged 8-10%growth since it's inception, even including the Great Depression. If you are in it for the long haul, it is still a great investment, even outperforming gold during the same time frame.

[Inor]

My gut reaction right now is that I have absolutely zero idea where the markets are going to be in 6 months or a year. So... If I were looking to "invest", that is put some money into something and sit back and watch it and hope for growth, I would be looking at some kind of physical asset. Think, precious metals or in some case real estate - be careful with real estate because I think that could blow up like 2008.

On the other hand, if you are willing to invest the time and energy to learning how to trade, now is the absolute PERFECT time. The reason I say that is because whether the markets move up or down, they are going to be moving in fairly large amounts either way - big days up followed by big days down. Whether there are more ups than downs over a specific time period, I have no idea. But considering about 90-95% of all trading, whether stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc., is done automatically now via computers, once they start moving in a direction those moves are heavily exaggerated by the algorithms. Since most computer algorithms are trading on chart patterns it is fairly easy to predict on an hour-by-hour or day-to-day basis what is likely to happen next.

[Jester-ND]

a black swan could come along and render it all moot..... your belief in the probability of such an event, and the timing of it, makes me hesitant to invest in anything not tangible.

That being said, I have been saying "there is no way the stock market can keep climbing" since it was at 36,000.....

[StratBastard]

I'm no longer looking for gains at all. I'm basically hedged and meeting or slightly beating inflation. That's it. Very conservative. I live like a king (a country mobile home king, but a king nonetheless) on my SS and postal pension. I don't need any of my investment $$$ at Schwab or Fidelity, so I'm just preserving its purchasing power for when my daughter gets it one day. When I DO make a gain in the market despite my conservative approach, I buy some gold and stick it in the safe. Picked up 1.5 ounces last month woohoo! But I figure I'll average about a half ounce a month.

[Chiefster23]

I’m 75 and the wife is 78. Zero debt. I have no heirs at all to leave anything after death. The wife has one daughter who just retired in much better shape than me. So leaving an inheritance behind is not a factor in my reasoning. My big concern is that the world is a burning pile of shit right now, debt is out of control, and the markets are way overblown and unsustainable. My IRA goals are to generate Safe and sustainable income (if that is even possible!) and to preserve the principal. Currently I have a decent cushion of PMs that will remain untouched. The rest of my IRA is invested in blue chip stocks that pay dividends (around 1 to 2%). Sofar I have only taken dividends and interest, never touching the principal. But even blue chip stocks are at risk in a serious market downturn and I could lose a big chunk of the principal and we are too old to wait years for a market recovery.. I’m thinking that the safest investment (safety is all relative) is CDs (FDIC insurance). And now interest rates are pretty good (3.5% to 4%) and most probably headed down if Trump gets his way. Thinking of converting everything to a CD ladder averaging about 3.85%. This actually increases my current monthly withdrawals and keeps things predictable. The principal is guaranteed by the FDIC as long as the government doesn’t collapse. The downside is there is no possibility of increasing the value of the principal. But at this late stage of our lives, whocares?
Anyone see any obvious holes in my plan?

[T-Man 1066]

Chiefster, your plan seems solid. Ditto for Strat.

[StratBastard]

We are an older bunch here and some of us have good instincts concerning $ and investments. I’m considering making some big changes to my IRA allocations. That said, two questions I would like folks to chime in upon. Considering the shit storm the world is in right now;
1. Where do you think the stock market is going? Up, down, or staying flat?
2. Where do you think interest rates are going? Up, down, or pretty much stagnant?

I have some ideas of my own and looking at possibly making some big changes. But I don’t want to post my thoughts just yet as I want unbiased input from all you grumpy old bastards.

Tried to answer your message, but there's no "reply" button. Just "post" and Gawd knows if or where it posted LOL

We sound pretty similar in that regard.

Not sure I should be giving advice LOL, but I can let you know what I'm doing.

I am pretty much hedged conservatively at 68 years of age. I just try and meet or beat inflation. Not looking for gains, not at all worried about outliving my funds. Most the men in my family expire at 72 or so. I figure maybe 5 more years on this planet, so have everything set up to pass along to my daughter and GodDaughters.

Similar to you, I have about 20% in precious metals.

The rest, I have accounts at both Fidelity and Schwab, and just roll over CD's.

A new fly in the ointment of course: my brother passed away 2 months ago and left me a substantial amount. I told him not to put me in his estate, to give it to his niece maybe (my daughter) instead. I don't need it at all. Turns out he did anyway.

So now I have two IRA's and one 401K. Since I inherited them, the rules seem to say I have to start draining them over the next ten years. I don't HAVE ten years, so I'll do it in 5. All will be counted as income and taxed. I'll just buy gold and put it in the safe.

Best to you and yours Chief!

[~MG~]

Just SocSec, no debt, piddly bills.
Leftover $$ adds to m'cash stash.

Y'all are the ants and I'm the grasshopper.

[Piratesailor]

one of the key principles is consistency. Consistent contributions and let the market do what it does , up and down but primarily up

The Dow has consistently averaged 8-10%growth since it's inception, even including the Great Depression. If you are in it for the long haul, it is still a great investment, even outperforming gold during the same time frame.

[Piratesailor]

This is interesting to say the least. Yeah we are all on the “elderly” side of life so we have different needs and outlooks financially.

for me, I took too lump sum pension payouts. And rolled over my 401s. Half went to an investment advisor and I manage the other half via Schwab.

last year I managed about a 15% return and my advisor was close to 20%. It’s a mix of stocks and etf’s, a mutual fund and treasuries. It does well for me and the dividends alone almost outpace my SS.

since we have no debt besides property taxes (ugh) we don’t need a lot, although we seems to spend a bit (horses, guns, grandkids, etc)

to answer the question though, I think we will have some massive swings up and down as the Middle East shakes out and AI finds it footing. AI is a whole different story. But in the end I see the market up another 10% by year end